Had the same issue after allowing ports 80 and 443:
3/5/2014 9:35:40 AM.952 [WARN] Tried connecting to router at 185.2.138.124:443, but identity key was not as expected: wanted 5018B3EBCA6216B640909DF45DF811CBA336B398 but got 8BDCFFDB4EC2D36FEAA4C51DA9B23AF0174E03F4.
3/5/2014 9:35:41 AM.988 [WARN] Tried connecting to router at 103.3.188.169:443, but identity key was not as expected: wanted F528DED21EACD2E4E9301EC0AABD370EDCAD2C47 but got 8BDCFFDB4EC2D36FEAA4C51DA9B23AF0174E03F4.
but then only allowed port 443 and I was able to connect successfully.